Chapter 7 - Satoshi Nakamoto's Age

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Chapter 7

Satoshi Nakamoto’s Age

Earlier it was stated that we were not going to get into the weeds of bitcoin itself including its value in the past or future potential.  However, it is helpful in knowing or inferring more on Satoshi Nakamoto by understanding what bitcoin is fundamentally.  How it was created, when it was created, and what’s transpired since then.  For instance, the ledger held by each of the network nodes, many thousands, all work to validate bitcoin and keep its integrity intact.  This validation across independent nodes is considered decentralized and not owned by any one individual or organization or nation state.  In general terms, no single entity controls bitcoin.  This was always the intent from the start.  This could be inferred to have benefit of currency across nations and humanity of all status.

At the onset, bitcoin was set up to increase the available or awarded supply of coins nominally with the ultimate constraint of 21,000,000.  It would never exceed this amount and is pertinent to assessing age for Satoshi Nakamoto.  Rewarding those that mine new bitcoin with diminishing return on investment would encourage, in theory anyway, the price value to increase.  It is set to reduce the reward by one half generally every four years. This 4-year span has some variability but is rather close to the schedule.  At the time of writing here, the most recent halving occurred on April 19, 2024.  This is the last real significant value add as future 4-year halving rewards have very low reward relative to the input energy and effort for outcome.  

The concept of bitcoin halving plays a key role in assessing Satoshi Nakamoto’s age.  When bitcoin was created it was inherent to reward those mining new bitcoin with a predetermined number of new bitcoins.  Keeping in mind these new bitcoins in cumulative would never exceed 21,000,000.  The initial mining of bitcoins in 2009 rewarded those mining new bitcoins with 50 bitcoins.  At today’s valuation of bitcoin that 50-bitcoin reward would be valued at $3,250,000 (approximately $65,000/bitcoin x 50) .  Of course, when bitcoin first started out the valuation was essentially zero and in fact a negative number given it requires electricity and one’s time and effort to achieve that first reward.  At the time, few people were aware of the endeavor or its potential.  Thus, accumulating rewards and not doing anything more with it would be expected and not out of the norm of what anyone would do in that position.  Sending or receiving bitcoin early on with no value would have been an exercise in fun or test and not financial reward.

It is now known, those early mined bitcoins are likely connected to Satoshi Nakamoto and held in upwards of 20,000 wallet addresses.  Each wallet having a varied number of bitcoins and many having at least 50 bitcoin.  Those early onset rewards at times grouped and although anonymous in nature, all points to a single individual and likely the originator of bitcoin.  That 50-bitcoin multiplied by 20,000 wallet addresses would amount to about 1,000,000 bitcoins. The math on this is not entirely certain but most people agree the person that is Satoshi Nakamoto would hold over 1 million bitcoins at one point in time.  At today’s valuation of bitcoin being around $65,000, that puts the value in today’s dollars at approximately $65 billion. Again, in 2009 when this all began, it would have been at zero or even in terms of negative valuation in holdings.

An interesting side note is that many other individuals in the cryptocurrency realm have since  “donated” or transferred portions in whole or part to some of the bitcoin wallet addresses supposedly held by Satoshi Nakamoto. Likely these are from persons not connected with Satoshi Nakamoto that simply want to pay homage to the creator of bitcoin.

The first Bitcoin transaction started in 2009 with Satoshi Nakamoto.  That first transaction appears to be 10 bitcoin, although subsequently rewards began at 50 bitcoin that year.  With rewards at the time being 50 bitcoins and then each subsequent 4 years the reward protocol would provide for a halving in the amount of bitcoin rewarded.  Thus, in 2012 the reward became 25 and in 2016 the reward became 12.5 and in 2020 the reward became 6.25 and in 2024 the reward became 3.125.  This halving will continue until the total limit for bitcoin is reached (21 million allocated in cumulative).  As one can see there is considerable diminishing return with each halving and after 2024 the next halving will be only 1.5625 bitcoin with fractional bitcoin rewards subsequent to that amount.  

How does all this halving relate to Satoshi Nakamoto’s age? Well, as one can see from the year 2009 to the year 2024 or perhaps into the next halving in 2028 the timeline is about 20 years.  This 20 years is also referenced in emails known to have originated by the person that is under the pseudo name of Satoshi Nakamoto early at the onset of bitcoin.  

This 16-year to 20-year timeline to get to very limited dispersion of bitcoin to date is not repeatable.  One must think this is a reasonable timeline for a creator to see just how far their creation would go.  For example, 40 years would potentially not be a timeline to see the outcome given its likely starting age.   Beginning with the likely age at start of bitcoin given the educational needs of the person and the desire to see the outcome of such a creation the likely age range today would be between 40 and 55 years old.    Any younger of a range and the person would not likely have the education necessary to formulate and exercise such an intricate creation.  Any older would run the risk of not seeing the outcome of the creation.  Some might argue the upper end of that range could be older but, when viewed in the context of the language used in email correspondence, and the uncertainty of how long it might take for bitcoin to actually take off and make a difference in the world a person beyond their 30s at the time of creation would be running great risk in not seeing their creation materialize.  They would potentially be in their 60s or older and with later age would come greater risks to seeing that outcome.

In summary, we would expect Satoshi Nakamoto to be between the ages of 22 and 40 at time of creation in 2006, 2007 and 2008 (again, the vision for bitcoin was arguably being created long before its public release).  The most likely age being 25 to 35 given education and timeline to think about it.  Adding the 15 to 20 years we are at in the development of bitcoin to have it largely materialized onto the likely age of Satoshi Nakamoto at the time says they would be between 40 and 55 today, give or take a couple years on that range.  Any older or younger is not supportive of what we know about bitcoin.  I will add for what it’s worth, this range is consistent with my own observations at the time of knowing the person I believe came to use the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto.